Sunday 28 / April / 2024
Sublime to the ridiculous is a cliche made for the decision of Libya’s United Nations-created unity government to move out of exile in Tunisia - not to Libya, but further away, to Morocco.
Conjured into being by the UN in December, the grandly-named Government of National Accord (GNA) is supposed to unify the country, end the civil war, staunch migration and crush IS.
In fact, this 'unity' government GNA is nothing of the kind. It consists of a nine-strong presidency council chosen by 'Libya Dialogue', a negotiating body much of which the UN itself appointed. Both Libya’s existing, warring, governments have already rejected it: The House of Representatives (HoR), the internationally recognised government in Tobruk, voted it down last month, while its rival General National Congress (GNC) in Tripoli announced its members face arrest if they set foot in the capital.
Even Tunisia, it seems, is uncomfortable at hosting this “virtual government”, hence its decision on the 3rd of February to move from a hotel in Tunis to a hotel in the Moroccan seaside resort of Skhirat.
Tunisia’s discomfort came in part courtesy of Rached Ghannouchi, President of Tunisia’s Ennahda party, anxious not to offend his fellow extremists, notably his close friend Abdel Hakim Belhadj, who controls the Tripoli Mitiga Airport and who supports the Tripoli based GNC.
In the middle of this uncomfortable storm is Fayez Seraj, until December a middling Tripoli businessman-cum-politician with no real enemies, and no real political clout. He was chosen not by the Libyan people but by UN envoy Martin Kobler to lead the GNA as prime minister.
The move to Morocco was the main subject of debate by the presidency members in Tunis, with some arguing the switch should be to Malta, a move that may come to pass in what looks like a prolonged period of exile.
But the one thing this so-called government will not do stuck in exile is fix Libya’s problems.
IS have taken advantage of Libya's chaos to establish themselves in the city of Sirte, and they have carried out several attacks on oil installations. At least 47 were killed by an IS suicide bombing against a Libyan police training centre earlier last month. Creating three governments where there were two by the UN will not change this.
American military power can without doubt crush IS and heavy hints have been dropped in recent days led by the Pentagon declaring it has operatives in Libya seeking “partnerships” with militias.
Simultaneously, a team of British military and intelligence officers last week undertook a secret reconnaissance mission to Libya to plan RAF airstrikes against IS militants.
Enter Italy. Its defence minister Roberta Pinotti said there was "total agreement" that a Libya unity government should ask for help to fight militants before it could be given, to avoid fuelling "extremist propaganda" of yet another "Western invasion”.
Importantly, Tobruk army commander General Khalifa just returned from Cairo leading a Libyan delegation drawing up military operation plans. The general has had enough it seems of the games by the other governments, including his own. He is seeking to be the conduit for an international intervention. Haftar is also the stumbling block for the unity government. Tobruk will not accept a unity government without him as army commander, Tripoli will not accept it unless he goes.
According to the the UN international action against IS can happen only if the GNA can get to Tripoli and then issue a formal invitation for the strikes. But with both Libyan governments opposing it, and their security impossible to guarantee, this looks to be unachievable - leaving it as a Frankenstein type creation with zero legitimacy.
America and it's allies destroying IS wherever it exists is the only option, and sooner or later that will mean boots on the ground.
